Economy on Nick Kirsch

Keep Calm and Carry On

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 04:13:00 +0000

Things That Get In The Way

Fri, 22 May 2009 18:13:41 +0000

Let’s not mince words - Jerry is what (and who) I get excited about most. Yet, when we play I am often distracted and find it difficult to let go of things outside my control (at least for the moment).

Those things?

Work. As confused as I am about whether I’m doing the right thing, I spend a lot of energy on work.

Money. This never used to be an obsession. Unfortunately, seeing stock at 27 a share gave me hope that I could somehow “get rich quick.” I haven’t shaken that. Last year’s market crash and my alternative investments have made me that much more obsessed. I read hundreds of blogs and news articles a week - but these people are no different - the future is still unknown.

Failed Banks and the Economic Crisis

Sat, 24 Jan 2009 23:20:24 +0000

This is just in its infancy, but I wanted a visual picture of the economic crisis and the affected banks. Using the Google Maps API and the FDIC’s failed bank list, I created this:

Right now, it is very basic - it just shows the points where the failed banks exist. As I learn how to manipulate this, the markers will each show the name of the failed bank and the date which they failed. My next step will be to add all of the banks which accepted money from the TARP and all the banks which refused money from the TARP.

Google Reader

Fri, 23 Jan 2009 17:17:32 +0000

I’m going to throw in a plug for Google Reader. For the past several years I have been using rss2email, which is a wonderful tool but not perfect. I love the fact that I can get feeds in my email - to a point. I now am watching over 20 financial feeds (what can I say, I’m hooked) - which is cool, but overwhelming my email box. I can easily see 50+ emails a day - and I don’t have time to process them all.

Buoyed by my early success...

Fri, 12 Dec 2008 14:40:44 +0000

I have now mastered the art of buying high and selling low!

I have also noted several observations:

The leveraged funds lose value over time due to high expense ratios and the simple math that 10% and 10% up doesn't mean you're in the same position. These need to be day-traded, not held - and you need a stomach for big market moves.
Futures tend to overreact; while they may predict the outcome for the day, buying pre-market or post-market exacerbates the sentiment. I think this can be taken advantage of by being "anti-sentiment".
Don't count your chickens before they've hatched. If you feel that giddy about your position, take the profit now.

I’ve also learned that my experiment with day-trading has reduced my average amount of sleep from 8 to 5 hours a night. It has very quickly become an obsession with very little (if any) personal gain. While there is an unrealized (!) potential for monetary gain, a different obsession would be a better investment of my time. Nontheless, I am not abandoning this obsession just yet…

holiday spirit...

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 20:20:32 +0000

This is a sick perversion of the holiday spirit.

A man died because people were so desperate to save a few percentage points on the latest imported junk. No one even bothered to help him.

I’m disgusted.

Is this what we're in for?

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 06:46:18 +0000

Courtesy of dshort.com

The financial crisis provides for individual opportunity...

Thu, 16 Oct 2008 17:00:59 +0000

I’ve obviously been spending a lot of time learning about what’s going on with the financial markets, the economy, etc. I am certainly no expert, but far more informed then I was a few months ago. I have yet to take the same strong interest in politics…

Flashback to 2002, when I quit my job at InsynQ as a beautiful love interest (Eriko) forced me to realize that it was going nowhere. In doing so, I spent several months unemployed and it has completely impacted and changed my spending habits. Before the unemployment, I spent money like I would always have money - not necessarily in debt, but very little savings.

mortgage rates increasing...

Thu, 16 Oct 2008 16:43:29 +0000

This can’t be good for home owners:

Mortgage Type	Current	1 month ago
15-YEAR	6.07	5.37
30-YEAR	6.38	5.72
1-YEAR ARM	6.28	5.88

Source Bloomberg.

Certainly isn't good for my prospects of purchasing a home.

We're broke!

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 16:26:32 +0000

National Debt Clock Runs Out of Digits

We should all be dissapointed that we’ve allowed our government to run up a 10 trillion dollar debt. That’s roughly $33k for each US citizen.

Boy, Jerry can’t afford that. On closer thought, neither can I…

Ah... TARP... yet another sad move by a sad president.

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 04:55:57 +0000

I’ll just say “I told you so” in advance. Here’s another opinion.

That said, maybe I can move onto something else less controversial… like politics!

I’m slowing coming to accept that politics is really a popularity contest. Democracy (at least in the US) is an extension of playground rules - say whatever you want, make as many promises as you can, because when the popularity vote happens the winner will get his/her day in the sun. It doesn’t matter how far you stretch the truth, or how much you sell your soul to get those votes - the only potential accountability is that you won’t win the contest again.

The campaign continues...

Fri, 03 Oct 2008 03:39:56 +0000

Today, I faxed the House Republicans who originally voted NO, urging them to stand their ground. Sadly, the Senate bill includes pathetic amounts of pork targeted specifically at those representatives….

I’ve also begun faxing the Blue Dog Coalition. Mish lined up the fax numbers in a nice easy format for my faxing program, but coincidentally I discovered the Blue Dogs yesterday before his post (how about them apples?)

Bill is rejected - but its not over yet...

Tue, 30 Sep 2008 03:17:30 +0000

I hope that Congress will put this awful Paulson bill behind them and focus on creating a better plan. By this time, there have been many alternatives created and there are many other models to follow.

I’d like to get back to regular blogging about Jerry, my lack of discipline, … but until we have a reasonable way forward, I’ve got to stay diligent!

More faxes going out tonight. A thank you note to the 228 house members who voted against the bill and more opposition to the 205 who didn’t, along with the Senate.

Don't vote no, vote "hell no."

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 23:59:56 +0000

Here’s a great article that just reinforces the stupidity and immorality of the current bill. You can read the full text here.

A disgrace - take 15 minutes and tell Congress.

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 22:15:14 +0000

The Treasury plan also does not explicitly include an HOLC-style program to reduce across the board the debt burden of the distressed household sector; without such a component the debt overhang of the household sector will continue to depress consumption spending and will exacerbate the current economic recession. Thus, the Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown. It is pathetic that Congress did not consult any of the many professional economists that have presented - many on the RGE Monitor Finance blog forum - alternative plans that were more fair and efficient and less costly ways to resolve this crisis. This is again a case of privatizing the gains and socializing the losses; a bailout and socialism for the rich, the well-connected and Wall Street. And it is a scandal that even Congressional Democrats have fallen for this Treasury scam that does little to resolve the debt burden of millions of distressed home owners.

STOP!

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 21:47:45 +0000

STOP!

THIS BAILOUT IS WRONG!

“Is Purchasing $700 billion of Toxic Assets the Best Way to Recapitalize the Financial System? No! It is Rather a Disgrace and Rip-Off Benefitting only the Shareholders and Unsecured Creditors of Banks”

Nouriel Roubini

YOU ARE DESTROYING OUR FUTURE WITH YOUR RECKLESS RUSH TO PASS A FLAWED BILL!

I WILL VOTE YOU OUT OF OFFICE IF YOU VOTE FOR THIS BILL AND I WILL TELL EVERYONE I KNOW.

If this is a liquidity problem, why is the Funds Rate at 2%?

Fri, 26 Sep 2008 16:25:16 +0000

“The Effective Fed Funds rate has been trading 50 basis points or more below the 2% target for five straight days now, and for the last two days, it has traded 75 basis points under.” (Don’t take Karl’s word for it, here’s the official data.)

What is Ben Bernanke doing?

Why did WAMU fail on a Thursday instead of a Friday (like the other 6 banks?)

Hank Paulson was the CEO of Goldman Sach’s. Do you think he has the best interests of Main Street or Wall Street in mind?

403 fax pages sent, more to come

Fri, 26 Sep 2008 02:12:07 +0000

I even called my two senators (Murray and Cantwell) today. Most of the faxes were campaigns thanks to Mish, but I’ve also been urged on by Jesse, Karl, and others - and I’ve even authored a few originals.

It helps that I was able to script the delivery of a single letter to multiple senators using some Python and MetroFax.

Haste Makes Waste

Wed, 24 Sep 2008 10:51:37 +0000

Admittedly, sending faxes from your house isn’t much work for political activism. Nontheless, few things have compelled me to action as much as the recent fear mongering and insanity aimed at bailing out the rich few on the backs of the ordinary.

Senator,

Haste Makes Waste.

The American economy is strong and resilient. The key to that strength is the creativity, flexibility, and hard labor of American citizens. The key to that strength is the belief that tomorrow is a new opportunity to improve and prosper and that opportunity is unburdened by the sins of the past.

Senators, Block This Bill!

Wed, 24 Sep 2008 01:51:13 +0000

The following text was reproduced with permission from Mish. If this compels you, this should also. Act now!

This was the fastest way to spread the word. I have faxed my senators (and those below). I encourage you to do the same.

Fate May Rest With Shelby CNBC is reporting Fate of Bailout May Rest With Republican Sen. Shelby.

Many members of the U.S. Senate blasted the Bush administration's Wall Street bailout plan Tuesday, but no senator has come forward so far with an explicit pledge to kill the $700 billion proposal.

The rules of the Senate, unlike the House, give individual lawmakers substantial power to delay or halt legislation, but three Senate aides said there were no clear signs yet of that power being exercised.

As the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing on the plan put forward by the Treasury Department, aides said much would depend on Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby, the committee's top Republican, who was sharply critical at the hearing.

The outlook for Treasury's plan would dim greatly if Shelby were to move to block the bill that is expected to emerge soon from congressional debate over the plan, the aides said.

Other senators, including Republicans Jim Bunning of Kentucky and Jim DeMint of South Carolina, have expressed strong concerns.

But the aides said these lawmakers also have stopped short of warning they would work to block the bill.

Another Fax Needed

"looming financial catastrophe"

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:34:06 +0000

Somehow, I happened on the blog of Michael “Mish” Shedlock - everything must be taken with a grain of salt, of course, but I think a lot of his analysis is spot on. I’ve also started following some articles on http://seekingalpha.com/ as I try to make sense of the current investment climate.

Being in the middle-class, capital preservation is very important in volatile times - otherwise there will be nothing to invest when the market rebounds.

China Becoming the Preeminent Global Manufacturer

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:50:53 +0000

My dad complained for years that everything was made in China. Sadly, it is becoming a reality.

Click on the picture to read the entire article.

Senator Murray Responds:

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 21:21:15 +0000

Dear Mr. Kirsch:

Thank you for writing me about the current downturn in the housing market and the federal government’s role in responding. I appreciate hearing from you on this important issue.

As you know, growing losses in subprime mortgage markets have recently had a negative effect on the United States economy. Thousands of people are on the brink of losing their homes to foreclosure, and as a result many financial institutions have been faced with bankruptcy as consumer confidence in mortgage-backed securities has decreased. I share many of your concerns regarding the appropriate manner for Congress and the Administration to respond to this situation.

Dear Politicans,

Sat, 12 Jul 2008 04:26:25 +0000

I am very concerned with the way Congress is rushing to fix the housing mess without taking the time to understand what the root causes are and the potential ramifications of policy on the future.

My faith in politics hinges on our leaders’ ability to look past their own re-election and towards the decisions which will have the most benefit to their constituents and the American people - not in the short-term, but in the long-term.

Kaye A. Thomas: Consider your Options

Sun, 10 Jun 2007 05:39:24 +0000

I read the 2000 edition from the library, but there is a 2007 edition available. The book provides an overview of ISOs, NQOs, ESPP, and ATM (along with a few other topics.) There is enough here to cause any interested individual to feel a strong need to call a competent tax accountant.

I will be giving my dad’s accountant, Jeffery Bowles, a call very soon.

A quick rant about AMT - what a mess. From here, “Because the AMT was not indexed for inflation, its reach has expanded annually, delivering a significant tax increase this spring to an estimated 4 million households. The AMT would have spread even more rapidly after President Bush’s tax cuts reduced taxpayers’ normal bills, but Congress enacted yearly “patches” to restrain its growth. The most recent patch expired in December, and unless Congress acts, the tax is projected to strike more than 23 million households next spring, many of them earning as little as $50,000 a year.”

The Economist : February 24th - March 2nd, 2007

Mon, 19 Mar 2007 21:47:57 +0000

I finished reading this while on the plane(s) from Seattle to Moscow.

There was a 10-page (or so) feature section on off-shore banking centers. Wow - there’s a lot of people with a lot of money. Speaking people with money, politics is so mixed up with money today that even Mr. Smith would be crooked.

2005-10-21

Mon, 24 Oct 2005 04:12:17 +0000

I slept well and woke up relatively early. I had lots of time before I needed to be at work (I’m aiming for 8 AM as a start time) so I worked through the Washington State voter’s pamphlet and decided how I would vote on several issues. I’m not sure if I will actually vote for the various seats, I simply don’t know enough about the candidates. Then I headed off to work, where I worked on some bugs. This period in the development cycle is a little boring, because it is difficult to feel like you’re making progress, since bugs are never-ending. I came home for lunch with Eriko (which she made) and it was yummy. Afterwards, I had coffee with Zack, which was nice. It turns out he will be moving even closer to me. My afternoon was semi-productive until I had coffee with Rob, which was also nice. (Note that I had decaf both times, otherwise I’d be loaded). I came home for dinner with Eriko and then we watched some TV. We went to Safeway and then Eriko took a nap. I started watching a lecture on my handheld device but that didn’t last long. We showered and went to bed early.

my first federal election

Tue, 02 Nov 2004 17:19:26 +0000

it sure was anti-climactic after all those TV ads… i am curious to see if our country can grow up and be a mature member of the world.